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The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index, fell 4.0% in November to 73.9. Year over year pending sales have dropped 37.8%. Month over month pending home sales declined in all four regions – signings dropped in the Midwest (-6.6% to 77.8), followed by the West (-.09% to 55.1), the South (-2.3% to 88.5), and the Northeast (-7.9% to 63.3). Year-over-year figures also fell in all regions. The Midwest (-31.6%), the Northeast (-34.9%), the West (-45.7%), and the South (-38.5%) all reported declines. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said “Pending home sales recorded the second-lowest monthly reading in 20 years as interest rates, which climbed at one of the fastest paces on record this year, drastically cut into the number of contract signings to buy a home,” Yun also added “There are approximately two months of lag time between mortgage rates and home sales. With mortgage rates falling throughout December, home-buying activity should inevitably rebound in the coming months and help economic growth.”
The Labor Department reported an increase in initial jobless claims for the week ending December 24. The seasonally adjusted initial claims came in at 225,000 an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s upwardly unrevised level of 216,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 221,000 a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. For the week ending December 17, the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%. The total number of unemployment claims for the week ending December 17 was reported at 1.710M up 41,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The continuing claims’ 4-week moving average was 1.679M, an increase of 25,250 from the previous week. According to the unadjusted data for the week ending December 17 – Massachusetts (+1505), New Jersey (+1,258), Missouri (+1,040), Rhode Island (+522), and Pennsylvania (+406) all saw increases in initial claims. California (-2,268), Ohio (-1,806), Texas (-941), Georgia (-760), and Washington (-704) all saw decreases. For the week ending December 10th, 1.620M people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, an increase of 91,461 from the previous week. There were some 2.18M weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2021.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude oil stockpiles increased by 0.7M barrels to 419.0M barrels (6% below the five-year average) for the week ending December 23rd. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1M barrels per day, an increase of 173K barrels per day as compared to the previous week’s average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1M barrels (4% below the five-year average,) while distillate inventories increased by 0.3M barrels (7% below the five-year average). Refineries operated at 92.0% of their operable capacity, as gasoline production increased by an average of 10.1M barrels per day, while distillate fuel production slightly decreased still averaging 5.1M barrels per day. Crude oil imports came in at 6.3M barrels per day, an increase of 433K barrels per day as compared to the previous week. Crude oil imports averaged about 6.2M barrels per day over the last four weeks, 3.8% less for the same period last year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 11.2M barrels last week.
Tuesday January 3 – Manufacturing PMI (December)
Wednesday January 4 – JOLTs Job Openings (December)
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