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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index increased (+0.6%) in August, the biggest monthly gain of 2023. This follows seasonally adjust readings of (+0.2%), (+0.2%), and (+0.1%) over the previous months. The all items index has increased (+3.7%) over the last 12 months. This compares to (+3.2%), (+3.0%), and (+4.0%) over the previous months. The index for gasoline (+10.6%) was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase accounting for over half of the increase. The shelter index, which makes up about one-third of the CPI weighting, rose (+0.3%) in August. This marks the 40th consecutive monthly increase. The energy index rose (+5.6%) in August with increases coming from all energy sub-indexes. Other indexes which increased in August include rent of primary residence (+0.5%), owners’ equivalent rent (+0.4%), motor vehicle insurance (+2.4%), medical care (+0.2%), and personal care (+0.3%). The indexes for lodging away from home (-3.0%), used cars and trucks (-1.2%), and recreation (-0.2%) all saw decreases over the month. Core CPI inflation which excludes food and energy increased (+0.3%) in August and follows readings of (+0.2%), (+0.2%) and (+0.4%) over the previous months. The annual rate of core CPI inflation is now at (+4.3%), as compared to (+4.7%), (+4.8%), and (+5.3%) over the previous months. The shelter index increased (+7.3%) year over year, accounting for over 70% of the total increase in Core CPI. Other indexes with significant increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+19.1%), recreation (+3.5%), personal care (+5.8%), and new vehicles (+2.9%).
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the producer price index for final demand up a seasonally adjusted (+0.7%) in August, this follows (+0.4%), (-0.1%), and (-0.3%) readings the previous months. The PPI is seen as a bellwether for inflation as it measures what suppliers are charging businesses. The PPI index accelerated to an annualized (+1.6%) in August, this follows (+0.8%), (+0.1%), and (+1.1%) readings for the prior three months. Eighty percent of the rise in August’s final demand prices was attributed to a (+2.0%) increase in the index for final demand goods, this is largest rise since in June 2022. Sixty percent of the increase in final demand goods was attributed to gasoline, which jumped (+20%). The indexes for diesel fuel, (+41.1%) jet fuel (+23.6%), and home heating oil (+18.1%) all moved higher. The prices for final demand services reported up (+0.2%), this follows (+0.5%), (-0.1%), and (+0.2%) readings the previous months. A (+1.1%) increase in the index for residential real estate services (partial) was a primary contributor to the August rise in prices for final demand services. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the so-called core PPI increased (+0.3%) in August, the largest increase since February. The core PPI held at an annualized (+3.0%) in August, this follows (+2.9%), (+2.8%), and (+2.9%) readings for the prior three months.
The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales increased (+0.6%) to $697.6B in August, this follows a downwardly revised (+0.5%) increase for July. Retail sales are up 2.5% year over year. This marks the fifth straight month of sales growth. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Total sales for June 2023 through August 2023 were up 2.2% year over year. Much of the increase in retail sales was driven by a (+5.2%) increase in sales at gasoline stations. The increase in retail spending was broad-based with increases in clothing (+0.9%), electronics & appliances (+0.7%), personal care (+0.5%), grocery (+0.4%), autos & parts (+0.3%), food services (+0.3%), and building materials (+0.1%). Only sporting goods (-1.6%) and home furnishings (-1.0%) saw sales declines. When sales for gas stations and autos are excluded, retail sales increased (+0.2%). Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services increased (+0.1%) in August. July’s core retail sales were revised down to show sales increasing (+0.7%) instead of (+1.0%).
Wednesday September 20 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thursday September 21 – Existing Home Sales (August)
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