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The US Energy Information Administration in its May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) estimates that US crude oil production will average 11.9 million bpd in 2022, and increase to 12.8 million bpd in 2023, exceeding the record average production of 12.3 million bpd set in 2019. The STEO assumes that U.S. GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2022 and 2023. Despite the increases in production, the EIA expects Brent crude prices to average $107/bbl in the second quarter of 2022 and $103/bbl in the second half of 2022. The average Brent crude price is expected to drop to $97/bbl in 2023. Global consumption of petroleum and liquid fools is forecast to average 99.6 million bpd in 2022, a 0.2 million downward revision from April’s STEO, attributable to downward revisions to consumption growth for both the United States and China. The EIA also forecasts that the global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will rise by 1.9 million bpd in 2023 to an average of 101.5 million bpd.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index rose 0.3% in April and follows a 1.2% increase in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index is up 8.3% before seasonal adjustment, down from 8.5% in March. Increases in the indexes for shelter (+0.5%), food (+0.9%), airline fares (+18.6%), and new vehicles (+1.1%) were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The airline fares index is up 33.3% over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since December 1980. The energy index is up 30.3% over the last year, while the food index is up 9.4%, the largest 12-month increase since April 1981. The indexes for apparel (-0.8%), communication (-0.4%), and used cars and trucks (-0.4%) all declined over the month. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs increased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in April, twice March’s 0.3% reading. The Core CPI reading is the biggest increase in three months. The shelter index was a primary contributor to the Core CPI monthly increase. Shelter is up 5.1% year over year. The annual rate of core CPI inflation is 6.2%, down from 6.5% in March.
The Labor Department reported a slight increase in initial jobless claims for the week ending May 7th. The seasonally adjusted initial claims reported in at 203,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level. The previous week’s initial claims value was revised from 200,000 to 202,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 192,750 an increase of 4,250 from the previous week’s revised average. New York (-9,811) and Kentucky (-1,452) led the drop in initial claims, while California (+3,756) and Illinois (+3,663) saw increases. For the week ending April 30th, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as insured unemployment remained at 1.0%. Continuing claims reported in at 1.343M down 440,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level. The continuing claims 4-week moving average was 1,385,000 a decrease of 32,750 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level since hitting 1,374,250 in January of 1970. For the week ending April 23rd, 1,440,324 people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, a decrease of 38,030 from the previous week’s level. There were some 16,848,931 weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2021.
Tuesday May 17 – Retail Sales (MoM) (April)
Wednesday May 18 – Building Permits (April)
