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Nondefense aircraft orders rose +44.5% in March (+55.0% Y/Y), following a +39.1% increase in February, helping to boost overall new orders for durable goods to +2.6% for March. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged for the month and up 7.2% compared to the previous 12 months. Orders dropped for defense aircraft (-9.4%, -26.5% Y/Y), computers (-2.6%, -7.6% Y/Y), and machinery (-1.7%, +7.0% Y/Y), and rose for communications equipment (+8.2%, +1.6% Y/Y) , nondefense capital goods (+6.0%, +12.4% Y/Y), and primary metals (+1.4%, +13.9% Y/Y). Orders for motor vehicles ticked up +0.1% after a +2.0% increase in February, and were up +6.9% Y/Y.
The trade deficit in goods narrowed by $7.8 billion in March to $68 billion as a result of both a +2.5% increase in exports and a -2.1% decrease in imports. Exports declined only for automotives (-5.8%, +7.0% Y/Y), and rose significantly for foods (+8.5%, +5.9% Y/Y), capital goods (+4.0%, +8.9% Y/Y), and industrial supplies, which include petroleum (+1.6%, +19.2% Y/Y). Imports increased only for automotives (+0.7%, +2.6% Y/Y), and decreased notably for foods (-3.8%, +10.1% Y/Y), capital goods (-3.1%, +10.9% Y/Y), consumer goods (-2.3%, +10.2% Y/Y), and industrial supplies (-1.9%, +8.8% Y/Y). Wholesale inventories were up +0.5%, with a +0.8% rise in durable goods inventories outpacing a -0.1% drop in nondurable goods. A -1.0% drop in motor vehicle inventories dragged down overall retail inventories to -0.4%, with all other non-vehicle inventories inching down by -0.1% for the month.
2018 Q1 GDP grew at a +2.3% annual rate, down from the previous quarter’s +2.9% rate, but higher than a generally expected +2.0%. Consumer spending grew at +1.1% compared to Q4’s +4.0% rate, with an increase in the personal savings rate (+2.6% to +3.1%) and slowdowns in the spending rate as a portion of GDP for motor vehicles (+0.45% to -0.42%), clothing (+0.21 to -0.19%), and food and beverages (+0.32% to +0.02%). Private investment increased +7.3%, with increases in spending for structures (+12.3% vs +6.3% Q4) and intellectual property (+3.6% vs +0.8% Q4), although residential investment was flat after a +12.8% increase in Q4 and investments in equipment slowed from Q4’s +11.6% to +4.7%. Federal spending was up +1.7% vs +3.2% for Q4, and state and local spending was up +0.8% vs +2.9% for Q4.
Monday April 30 – Personal Income and Outlays
Wednesday May 2 – Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement
