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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its February 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects natural gas consumption to be below average due to the warmer-than-expected January. Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub are forecast to average $3.40 per million British thermal units in 2023, a significant drop from January’s $5.00/MMBtu prediction. EIA projects dry gas production to rise to 100.27 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.68 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022. Domestic gas consumption is expected to fall to 87.04 bcfd in 2023 and 86.10 bcfd in 2024 from 88.63 bcfd in 2022. Brent crude oil prices are projected to decline in the second half of the year to an average of $82 per barrel from $85 per barrel in the first half as production is anticipated to outpace demand. EIA forecasts that crude oil production will increase by 590K barrels per day (bpd), to 12.49 million (bpd) in 2023, and by another 160K bpd to 12.65 million bpd in 2024. Coal production is estimated to decline by 13% to 518 million short tons (MMst) in 2023, with another 5% decline to 494 MMst in 2024. The decline is driven by a reduction in coal consumption by the electric power plants as well as lower natural gas prices. U.S. coal exports are expected to increase by about 2% in 2023 and 9% in 2024, mainly to supply rising demand in Asia and Europe.
Fed Chair Powell spoke at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., and said that “The disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun and it’s begun in the goods sector, which is about a quarter of our economy. But it has a long way to go. These are the very early stages.” Powell indicated that except for housing the services sector is not showing signs of disinflation. That future rate increases are a certainty, and that the January jobs report is an indication that it’ll take some time to get things under control. Powell also said “We expect 2023 to be a year of significant declines in inflation. It’s actually our job to make sure that that’s the case,” he also stated, “…with PCE inflation running at about 5.0%… core at about 4.4% my guess is it will take certainly into not just this year, but next year to get down close to 2%.”. The Fed Chair also talked about the labor market indicating that the demand for workers is about 5 million greater than the supply, saying that “this was not the case before the pandemic” and that the “shortage of workers is structural rather than cyclical”.
The Labor Department reported an increase in initial jobless claims for the week ending February 4th. The seasonally adjusted initial claims reported at 196,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 189,250 a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s average, this is the lowest level since April 2022. On an unadjusted basis, claims rose 9,628 (or 4.3%) to 234,654. There were 230,740 initial claims for the comparable week in 2022. Of the 53 states and U.S. territories that report jobless claims 25 reported increases and 28 reported declines. California (+7,579) led with the largest increase in initial claims, followed by Ohio (+3,419), and Illinois (+1,561). Georgia (-1,665), New Jersey (-1,440), and Texas (-1,062) saw the most decrease. For the week ending January 28th, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, an increase of 0.1% from the prior week. Continuing claims reported in at 1.688M up 38,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. For the week ending January 21st, 1.942M people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, an increase of 52,388 from the previous week’s level. There were 2.238M weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2022.
Tuesday February 14 – CPI (MoM) (January)
Wednesday February 15 – Retail Sales (MoM) (January)
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