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The ISM® (Institute for Supply Management®) Non-Manufacturing PMI® reported in at 56.9, slightly higher than July’s 56.7 reading, this marks the second consecutive monthly increase after three months of declines. A PMI reading over 50 indicates monthly expansion in the services sector, which makes up almost two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM® services business survey committee stated – “The services sector had a slight uptick in growth for the month of August due to increases in business activity, new orders, and employment”. The ISM®’s measure of new orders received by services businesses increased to 61.8 from 59.9 in July, the employment measure also moved higher to 50.2 from 49.1. The supplier deliveries index decreased to 54.5 from 58.3 in July, a reading of above 50 percent indicates slowing deliveries. The prices index, which is a gauge of what services industries pay for inputs declined for the fourth consecutive month to 71.5.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in its September 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that it expects higher-than-average natural gas prices globally. The U.S. natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub is expected to reach a monthly average of $9.10 per million British thermal units in January 2023, the highest inflation-adjusted monthly average price since 2008. “There are limited options for replacing natural gas in the short term, especially for electricity generation,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “We expect electricity producers—particularly in Europe—will have to generate some electricity from oil-based fuels this winter.” EIA forecasts U.S. natural gas inventories will be 7% below their previous five-year average at the end of October. The EIA expects that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will reach 11.01 billion cubic feet per day bcfd in 2022 and 12.34 bcfd in 2023, up from a record 9.76 bcfd in 2021. Oil prices are predicted to remain somewhat the same for the rest of the year. Crude production is projected to increase to 11.79 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.63 million bpd in 2023, this is up from 11.25 million bpd in 2021. U.S. coal production is expected to rise to 600 million short tons in 2022, up from 578 million short tons in 2021.
The Labor Department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims for the week ending September 3rd. This marks the fourth straight week of decrease. The seasonally adjusted initial claims reported in at 222,000 a decrease of 6,000 from the prior week’s 228,000 (initially 232,000). The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was 233,000 a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims posted the highest increases in Massachusetts (+2,955) and Oklahoma (+1,516), while New York (-3,539) and Michigan (-2,088) saw the most decreases. For the week ending August 27, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as the insured unemployment rate was 1.0%, unchanged from the prior week. Continuing claims reported in at a near five-month high of 1.473M, up 36,000 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. The continuing claims 4-week moving average was 1.439M an increase of 10,750 from the previous week’s downwardly revised level. For the week ending August 20th, 1,414,849 people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, a decrease of 23,283 from the previous week. There were 11,927,797 weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2021.
Tuesday September 13 – CPI (MoM) (August)
Thursday September 15 – Retail Sales (MoM) (August)
