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U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that it expects power demand to climb to 3,992 billion kilowatt-hours in 2022 and 4,034 BkWh in 2023. Power demand eclipsed 4,003 BkWh in 2018, and was as low 3,856 BkWh in 2020. While residential consumption is predicted to decline (-1.15%) to 1,465 BkWH in 2022, commercial consumption is expected to increase (+2.26%) to 1,355 BkWH, and industrial consumption is projected to increase (+3.74%) to 1,025 BkWH. This compares with all-time highs of 1,482 BkWh in 2021 for residential consumption, 1,382 BkWh in 2018 for commercial, and 1,064 BkWh in 2000 for industrials. The EIA predicted that natural gas’ share of power generation will decrease from 37% in 2021 to 35% in 2022 and 2023. Coal’s share will drop from 23% in 2021 to 22% in 2022 and 2023 as renewables take hold. Renewable power is expected to increase from 20% in 2021 to 22% in 2022 and 24% in 2023. Nuclear power is expected to hold steady at 20% for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index rose 0.6% in January, mirroring December’s reading. The index’s year-over-year rate is up a seasonally adjusted 7.5%, the fastest annual pace since February 1982, and follows a 7.0% reading in December. Much of the seasonally adjusted all-items increase is attributable to increases in the indexes for food (+0.9%), energy (+0.9%), and shelter (+0.3%). Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in January. Energy reported up 27% on a year-over-year basis as fuel oil prices surged 9.5% and electricity jumped 4.2% month in January. Shelter which makes up about one-third of the total CPI number reported up 4.4% year-over-year. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs increased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in January and mirrors December’s reading. The annual rate of Core CPI inflation is 6.0% and follows a 5.5% increase in December, this is the largest year-over-year jump since August 1982. Along with the index for shelter, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, (+1.3%) used cars and trucks (+1.5%), medical care (+0.7%), and apparel (+1.1%) were among multiple indexes reporting increases in January.
The Labor Department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5th. The seasonally adjusted initial claims came in at 223,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility was essentially flat at 253,250 a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. Kentucky (-3,078) lead with the largest decrease in claims, followed by Tennessee (-3,007), Illinois (-2,948) and California (-2,286). Michigan had by far the largest increase in claims (+2,833). For the week ending January 29th, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment also known as insured unemployment was unchanged from the previous week’s revised level of 1.2% and 1.621M. The continuing claims 4-week moving average was 1,634,500, an increase of 16,500 from the previous week. For the week ending January 22nd, 2.099M people were receiving jobless benefits through state or federal programs, an increase of 32,069 from the previous week’s level. There were some 20.92M weekly claims filed for the comparable week in 2021.
Wednesday February 16 – Retail Sales (MoM) (January)
Thursday February 17 – Building Permits (January)
