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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased this month to 113.8 and follows a 109.8 value for September. “Consumer confidence improved in October, reversing a three-month downward trend as concerns about the spread of the Delta variant eased,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers’ sentiment of current business conditions and the labor market, increased to 147.4 from 144.3 in September. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all increased. A sizeable 47.6% of respondents said they intend to take a vacation within the next six months—the highest level since February 2020. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and the job market rose to 91.3 as compared to last month’s 86.7. The share of consumers that expected more jobs to be available increased to 25.4%, up from 21.7%. The percentage of consumers who said business conditions will improve came in at 24.3%, up from September’s 21.7%.
The U.S Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods decreased 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted $261.3 billion in September. The decrease follows four consecutive monthly increases and is the second decline in the last 17-months. Total durable-goods orders are up 20.7% percent YoY. Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 0.4%. Transportation has reported down two of the past three months and drove the decline, down 2.3%. Nondefense new orders for capital goods dropped 4.2% to $84.9B as defense orders surged 28.4% to 14.9B. Shipments of durable goods rose 0.4% after a 0.5% drop in August. Core capital goods orders which exclude aircraft and military hardware increased 0.8% in September to $77.7 billion – this is the tenth new high in the last 11-months, and follows a revised 0.5% increase in August. Shipments of core capital goods rose 1.4% to $75.8B.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ first estimate on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reported an economy expanding at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 2%, well below the 6.7% pace set in the second quarter. This marked the slowest GDP gain since the second quarter of 2020. The deceleration in real GDP was driven primarily by a slowdown in consumer spending. Consumer spending grew at an annual rate of 1.6% in the third quarter versus 12% in the second quarter. The drop in spending for goods was led by motor vehicles, while the drop in services was led by decreases in food services and accommodations. Falling motor vehicle purchases contributed to a 26.2% decrease in durable goods spending, versus an 11.6% increase in the second quarter. Non-durable goods spending rose by 2.6% and followed a 13.9% reading in the second quarter. Spending on services rose by 7.9% and followed 11.5% reading in the second quarter.
Wednesday November 3 – FOMC Statement
Friday November 5 – Unemployment Rate (October)
