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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index increased (+0.1%) in March, after a (+0.4%) reading in February, and (+0.5%) in January. Over the last 12 months, the all items index is up (+5.0%) before seasonal adjustment as compared to (+6.0%) in February, and (+6.4%) in January. This marks the ninth straight month of a cooling in the annual inflation rate since it peaked at 9.1% in June, and the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending May 2021. The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase. The shelter index increased (+0.6%) in March and follows a (+0.8%) reading in February. A (-3.5%) decrease in the energy index was a partial offset; as indexes for gasoline (-4.6%), fuel oil (-4.0%), electricity (-0.7%), and natural gas (-7.1%) all dropped. The food index was unchanged, while the food at home index declined (-0.3%). Core CPI inflation rose (+0.4) in March and follows (+0.5%) in February, and (+0.4%) in January. The annual rate of core CPI inflation is now at 5.6%, up slightly from 5.5% in February. The shelter index is up (+8.2%) year over year and accounts for over 60% of the total increase in Core CPI. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance (+1.2%), airfares (+4.0%), household furnishings (+0.4%), new vehicles (+0.4%), education (+0.3%), and apparel (+0.3%) all saw increases. The indexes for used cars and trucks (-0.9%) and medical care (-0.3%) both declined.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.6M barrels to 470.5M barrels (3% above the five-year average) for the week ending April 7th. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6M barrels per day, a slight decrease of 30K barrels per day as compared to the previous week’s average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.3M barrels (7% below the five-year average), and distillate inventories decreased by 0.6M barrels (11% below the five-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 8.4M barrels. Refineries operated at 89.3% of their operable capacity, as gasoline production decreased to an average of 9.8M barrels per day and distillate fuel production decreased to an average $4.6M barrels per day. Crude oil imports came in at 6.2M barrels per day, a decrease of 951K barrels per day as compared to the previous week. Crude oil imports averaged about 6.2M barrels per day over the last four weeks, 0.8% less than the same period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 813K barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 233K barrels per day.
The Commerce Department reported advance U.S. retail and food services sales fell 1.0% to $691.7B in March, showing more deceleration over February’s (-0.4%) reading. Retail sales which are adjusted for seasonal shifts but not inflation were up (+2.9%) year over year. Total sales for the January 2023 through March 2023 period were up (+5.4%) year over year. Sales decreased across many categories – led by gas stations (-5.5%), general merchandise stores (-3.0%), building materials (-2.1%), electronics and appliances (-2.1%), clothing stores (-1.7%), auto dealers (-1.6%), and home furnishings (-1.2%). Internet retailers (+1.9%), health and personal care (+0.3%), and restaurants (+0.1%) all saw increases. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales were down (-0.3%) for the month. Excluding autos, sales decreased (-0.8%). Core retail sales, a measurement that excludes spending on autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services decreased (-0.3%), after increasing (+0.5%) in February, and (+2.3%) in January.
Tuesday April 18 – Building Permits (MoM) (March)
Thursday April 20 – Existing Home Sales (MoM) (March)
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